Billionaire Ray Dalio’s Unconventional Advice for Efficient Decision Making

In the previous episode about colliding ideas with reality we talked about how to tell business ideas that are likely to succeed from those that aren't. An important part of this process is to turn vague ideas into specific numbers.

Instead of thinking "I'll need a lot of traffic" we want to think "I'll need X visitors and a Y% conversion rate". But how do you come up with these numbers for a business that doesn't exist yet?

In this episode, we'll teach you how to use approximation to figure out as quickly as possible what ideas are worth pursuing and be able to implement it rapidly, without spending a lot of time trying to be precise, or being careless and making bad business decisions. 

Listen in, we're about to save you a lot of time!


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Episode Transcript

What You'll Discover in this Episode:

  • The surprising "underrated skill" from Ray Dalio and Bridgewater Associates - one of the few firms that predicted the Recession of 2008.
  • Why it is not a problem if you don't have the exact numbers for your business plan.
  • Rapid implementation tip: a quick approximation is better for your business than a precise answer.
  • Specific, real-life examples on how approximation can validate your business idea or marketing strategy - in minutes.
  • You don't know what numbers you should expect or count with in your niche? Find out how you can know the average numbers on the market so that you can be realistic in your calculation.
  • How to be realistic with your deadlines publicly and with your team.


We know you love perfection...

...but for one day, try this method out. Set a goal and then work backwards. See if imprecision can help you validate your ideas and move the needle faster without spending hours on it.

Let us know in the comment section how it worked!

We'd also love to hear your own experience, stories, suggestions and questions.

As always, we're happy to get any feedback, questions, tips and stories in the comments below or leave us a voice message by hitting the green button below:

See you soon with another episode!

About the Author Alexandra Kozma

Alexandra is a traveling marketer. When she is not editing podcast episodes or writing blog posts, she's out there exploring a new city. She's the creator of the Morning Mindset daily mindfulness journal.

  • Zach says:

    Really enjoyed this episode guys, thanks. Got some really good insights for validating market size and fit for ideas & MVPs.

    P.S. the FB login for the comment section isn’t working — looks like the app’s still in development mode.

  • Trish Stuart says:

    First, thank you so much because you are giving me honest information. It’s been so helpful to listen to your podcasts. I will say it is a little depressing and overwhelming to realize that such a low percentage really responds to the work but at the same time it is strangely empowering to know that. Being brutally realistic is the only way to go. I’d rather not have unrealistic expectations and be able to celebrate small successes than to look at small ROI and think I am failing. Recognizing the reality of the numbers I will have to reach is daunting but at least I know what to aim for!

    I appreciate the clarity of your podcasts.

    I appreciate that you are not saying whatever you think I want to hear but instead are telling me things that are useful. You always bring up steps that did not occur to me. It is very nice to not be blindsided.

    In addition, I want to commend you on the willingness to be open and down to earth, to not offer hype and to take the time to step out there with information and realistic steps on what to do, cautioning me about what the results can be, and offering hope that I can do it with the information and tools you are providing free as a service to me.

    I’ve become a loyal listener. It is refreshing and uplifting to hear someone speak about things in a way that gives clear steps, someone that I trust. I see what you have built, I listen to the two of you, I recognize that you have overcome the hurdles yourselves, and built a business that is succeeding, and it gives me hope. Thank you.

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